Go or No-Go: Deciding Which Public Tenders to Bid
Key Takeaways
- Estimating hours are a real cost with a real budget, so the decision to bid deserves as much rigour as the pricing itself — bidding everything you can technically deliver is how contractors stay busy and unprofitable.
- Five questions settle most go/no-go decisions: can you comply, can you deliver on the schedule, is the contract your size, do you understand the buyer, and how many competitors is this category drawing.
- Track your bid-to-win ratio by buyer and category; a category where you have bid six times and won nothing is telling you something the next bid will not change.
The contractors who struggle with public work are rarely the ones who cannot find tenders. They are the ones who bid too many. Estimating hours are a real cost — someone senior, several evenings, per bid — and spending them on contracts you were never going to win is the quietest way to stay busy and unprofitable.
Treat the decision to bid as its own decision
Most firms have a pricing process and no bidding process. The tender arrives, it is technically within their capability, so they bid. Then they wonder why the win rate is low.
A go/no-go step costs fifteen minutes and protects the twenty hours behind it. It works best written down, because the pressure to bid is emotional — a slow month makes every tender look attractive.
The five questions
1. Can we comply, on paper, today? Licences, authorizations, insurance, bonding, references, mandatory site visits. Not “could we arrange it” — can we satisfy it by the closing date. A single unmet mandatory requirement makes the rest of the analysis irrelevant.
2. Can we deliver on their schedule? Public contracts carry firm dates and often penalties. Look at the work you have already committed to over that window, not the work you hope to have finished.
3. Is this contract our size? Compare it against what comparable work in your trade and region has actually been awarded for, and against the biggest job you have delivered comfortably. A contract several times your normal scale brings cash-flow, bonding and staffing risk that a good margin does not offset.
4. Do we understand this buyer? Have they bought this kind of work before? Who won last time? A buyer with a long-standing incumbent is a different proposition from one buying a service for the first time.
5. How crowded is this category? Award records often include how many bids were received. Consistently drawing twelve bidders means your realistic win probability is low regardless of how good you are.
If two or more answers are unfavourable, no-go — and log it. The value of writing down the reason is that six months later you can see whether your instinct about a buyer or category was right.
Track the ratio, by buyer and by category
Most contractors know their overall win rate, if that. The useful number is finer: how many bids, and how many wins, per buyer and per category.
That breakdown answers questions instinct cannot. A category where you have bid six times and won nothing is telling you something — wrong size, wrong pricing model, or an entrenched competitor — and the seventh bid will not change it. A buyer where you win one in three deserves more of your attention, not less.
This is the same discipline that makes private-side quoting profitable rather than merely fast; the true cost of slow, unfocused quoting is a smaller version of the same problem.
What a no-go is not
A no-go is not a lost opportunity, and it is not a lack of ambition. It is the decision that frees the hours for the tender you should win. Contractors who bid selectively and prepare thoroughly tend to beat those who bid widely and prepare thinly, because public bids are decided on compliance and completeness as much as on price.
It is also not permanent. A buyer whose contracts are too large today may publish a smaller package next year. Logging the no-go, with the reason, is what lets you notice.
Build the routine before you need it
The firms that do this well are not more disciplined by temperament. They have simply made the decision cheap: a saved profile of the trades, regions and contract sizes they want, a weekly look at what is new, and a short written test for anything that passes.
You can start by seeing what is currently open in your trade and region and reading a few notices against the five questions above. If public work is going to be a real channel rather than an occasional lottery ticket, the routine matters more than any single bid — the same way a consistent referral and portfolio system beats occasional bursts of marketing effort.
For how public bidding fits alongside the rest of a contractor’s pipeline, see the HVAC growth playbook or the SEAO Intelligence service.
Alliance Optima is not affiliated with SEAO or the Government of Québec. Match scores and market context are decision support, not eligibility guarantees — the official notice and its addenda always govern.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many public tenders should a contractor bid on?
Fewer than most do, more carefully. A firm that bids four well-chosen tenders thoroughly generally beats one that bids twelve thinly, because public bids are won on compliance and completeness as much as price.
How do I know if a contract is the right size for my business?
Compare it against what similar work in your trade and region has actually been awarded for, and against the largest job you have delivered comfortably. A contract several times your usual scale carries bonding, cash-flow and staffing risk that a good price does not offset.
Is it worth bidding to build a relationship with a buyer?
Sometimes, but be honest that this is what you are doing and budget it as marketing. Public processes are formal, so a losing bid builds far less relationship than it would in the private market.
Should I bid low to win my first public contract?
Winning a public contract you priced badly is worse than not winning it. The work is scrutinized, the scope is fixed by documents, and there is less room to recover margin through change orders than contractors expect.
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